Will update throughout the weekend.

On X-MEN -- note the huge budget is partially off-set by tax breaks:

Stellar $8.1M THU night pre-shows for #XMen. Close to #Godzilla & TASM2 despite later 10pm start. Wknd may top theirs.

@boxofficeguru

'X-Men 7' (Fox - 3996 runs) on track for $100M Mem Wkd with $8.1M late show start. Budget $200+M helped by tax credits.

@nikkifinke

I understand that ALL of the major movies have had their budgets partly offset by tax breaks, so I'm not certain why Nikki Finke thinks it's suddenly relevant to X-Men. They'll still need to get to a number somewhere north of 700 million to break even, as will the others.

DavidBanner wrote:I understand that ALL of the major movies have had their budgets partly offset by tax breaks, so I'm not certain why Nikki Finke thinks it's suddenly relevant to X-Men.

Maybe because they're getting more back (the whole thing was shot there, including FX sequences and reshoots) than other films this summer?

The latest in the Fox/Marvel franchise took advantage of a Quebec film tax credit that offsets 25 percent of the film's overall budget. The visual effects-heavy shoot also exploited Quebec's 20 percent bonus on all CGI and greenscreen shots for eligible labor costs.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/x ... ots-619308

Andy, you could be correct on that - but almost every case I've been seeing has had the movie filming either completely in a tax incentive state (New York, Louisiana, Georgia, North Carolina, New Mexico), or in some combination thereof.

I believe Iron Man 3 was mostly shot in North Carolina, with a bit of location shooting in China (not sure about the incentive there). I believe the post and the VFX were done in North Carolina.
Oblivion was mostly in Louisiana, except for a brief shoot in Iceland. VFX and post were done in Louisiana.
Ender's Game was completely shot in Louisiana, including all the VFX and Post. I attended a publicity event at the Digital Domain facility a few months ago, and when I asked the VFX supervisor if they'd done any work here in Los Angeles, he openly laughed.

One issue that this raises is what the REAL budgets of all these tentpoles are when you get past all the tax credits. The number may actually be a bit higher than people have been thinking...

Andy, you could be correct on that - but almost every case I've been seeing has had the movie filming either completely in a tax incentive state (New York, Louisiana, Georgia, North Carolina, New Mexico), or in some combination thereof.

You're absolutely right David - even Godzilla was shot mostly in Canada with some Hawaii location shots; Apes was shot up in Vancouver, etc. I just had the feeling X-Men was getting a large chunk back because every element of it -- seemingly -- was done up in Canada.

GODZILLA's big drop is pretty much as expected IMO. Even if the material is treated "properly" as it was here -- in contrast with the 98 movie -- there's a ceiling on how much one of these movies is going to make. And likewise, it's frontloaded as a lot of fan-driven franchises are.


1). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 3,996 theaters / $36M Fri. / 3-day cume: $95M to $97.5M / 4-day cume: $115M / Wk 1

2). Godzilla (WB), 3,952 theaters (0) / $8.8M to $9M Fri. / 3-day cume: $32M (-63%) / 4-day cume: $41M / Total cume: $158M to $160M / Wk 2

3). Blended (WB), 3,555 theaters / $4.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $13M+ / 4-day cume: $16.5M to $18M / Wk 1

4). Neighbors (UNI), 3,266 theaters (-45%) / $4M+ Fri. / 3-day cume: $13M (-50%) / 4-day cume: $15.8M / Total cume: 116M / Wk 3

5). The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (SONY) 3,160 theaters (-831) / $2M Fri. / 3-day cume: $8M to $9M (-50%) / 4-day cume: $10.5M / Total cume: $186.7M+ / Wk 4

6). Million Dollar Arm (DIS), 3,019 theaters (0) / $2M Fri. / 3-day cume: $7.7M to $8.2M (-26%) / 4-day cume: $9.5M to $9.7M / Total cume: $23M / Wk 2

7). The Other Woman (FOX), 2,154 theaters (-900) / $1.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.5M to $4M (-44%) / 4-day cume: $4.5M / Total cume: $78.5M / Wk 5

8 ). Rio 2 (FOX), 1,701 theaters (-670) / $537K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.4M (-35%) / 4-day cume: $3.2M / Total cume: $122.3M / Wk 7

9). Heaven Is For Real (SONY), 1,720 theaters (-1,173) / $575K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.2M (-50%) / 4-day cume: $2.7M / Total cume: $86.5M / Wk 6

10). Chef (OPRD), 498 theaters (+426) / $550K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.1M (+200%) / 4-day cume: $2.7M / Total cume: $4M / Wk 3

ASM2 is really slowing down now, and they've pulled it from something close to 900 theaters. I'll be curious to see what the international totals are. If the slowdown is equivalent, it's going to top out right around the 670-675 mark, and fall short of break even by somewhere north of 80 million. I think it will still be in the top ten for total grosses for the summer, but well have to see how everything else does. We're not even out of May yet...

I think it will still be in the top ten for total grosses for the summer

Only 8 films released in 2014 went north of $700 mil worldwide for the whole year. If ASM2 had been released in 2013 it would already be 10th on that list not counting any additional funds it might generate. So it'll certainly be among the summers top 10...it may or may not be in the top 10 for the whole year though. Depends on what everything else does. Either way they'll be needing additional revenue to turn a profit because it's not going to matter if it's $700 mil or $660 mil or whatever, they're going to be a bit short of it.

it's going to top out right around the 670-675 mark

According to the Deadline write-up, it's already at $675 million after this weekend.

I don't know how much mileage it has left -- not much -- but it should be good enough for another $10-$20 mil in the U.S. and a little bit more internationally. That should be good for about $700 mil worldwide, maybe a tiny bit more, which is what I assumed last week.

3-day weekend numbers.

GODZILLA had a big drop but is absolutely huge overseas. Big profits will be made this time out.

X-MEN had a huge opening internationally as expected also, though domestically, seems like it's on the lower end of expectations (though obviously still excellent).

1 N X-Men: Days of Future Past Fox $90,700,000 - 3,996 - $22,698 $90,700,000 $200 1
2 1 Godzilla (2014) WB $31,425,000 -66.3% 3,952 - $7,952 $148,773,000 $160 2
3 N Blended WB $14,245,000 - 3,555 - $4,007 $14,245,000 $40 1
4 2 Neighbors Uni. $13,946,000 -44.4% 3,266 -45 $4,270 $113,626,000 $18 3
5 3 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Sony $7,800,000 -53.6% 3,160 -831 $2,468 $184,900,000 - 4
6 4 Million Dollar Arm BV $7,093,000 -32.5% 3,019 - $2,349 $20,628,000 $25 2

7 5 The Other Woman (2014) Fox $3,675,000 -41.7% 2,154 -900 $1,706 $77,773,000 $40 5
8 7 Rio 2 Fox $2,500,000 -33.2% 1,701 -670 $1,470 $121,598,000 $103 7
9 15 Chef ORF $2,260,000 +218.9% 498 +426 $4,538 $3,548,000 - 3
10 6 Heaven is for Real TriS $1,950,000 -55.5% 1,720 -1,173 $1,134 $85,750,000 $12 6
11 8 Captain America: The Winter Soldier BV $1,722,000 -53.0% 1,373 -898 $1,254 $253,563,000 $170 8
12 13 Belle FoxS $1,700,000 +80.8% 453 +280 $3,753 $3,900,000 - 4

I think you're right Andy. Just saw the Mojo figures for ASM2. They might get to 700, although I think with how fast they're losing steam they could fall short by several million. (They're currently at 673 and I think they could make it to 693 before they're pulled from too many theaters to get any farther.)

And that's an incredible amount of money. It's mind boggling to me that even that will not get them even to the pint of breaking even. It again raises the question of how they can spend so much money that breaking even requires a blockbuster of historic proportions. I frankly wonder if it's going to take a couple more major studio bankruptcies for these guys to learn. They could spend half the budget they're currently throwing at these elephants, go into the black a lot more easily, and even have a little more to spend on the other movies that currently get pieced together with chewing gum and paper clips for awards season.

Yes exactly David. When a movie needs to make $750 million worldwide to turn a profit, there is DEFINITELY something off.

AndyDursin wrote:Yes exactly David. When a movie needs to make $750 million worldwide to turn a profit, there is DEFINITELY something off.

Remember, back in the 80's, when a movie making $100 million in the U.S. alone was considered a blockbuster success? Hell, a movie could top out around $60 million and still be hugely profitable. The problem is that so many studios are chasing that elusive Titanic/Avatar/Avengers tentpole that only comes around once or twice a decade, if that, and keep throwing INSANE budgets at movies that A.) aren't good enough to get multiple viewings out of audiences, and B.) are simply stuff no one wants to see in the first place (John Carter is a prime example...even though I liked it, the character's "brand name" carries ZERO expectations from today's audiences). If every single movie budget this summer were halved, pretty much every movie would make a profit. I just don't know why, in the era when movies are mostly assembled by a handful of computer technicians moving a mousepad around, why movies keep getting more and more expensive. You'd think, with fewer extras, actual set construction, and the like, that movies would have gotten cheaper to produce in the CGI era. Makes NO sense to me.

At the opposite end of the scale, my step-father's movie The Railway Man seems to be in trouble. It lost almost 30% of business last week after some very stable audience numbers, then expanded to 600 screens - and is estimated to have only around $1000 per screen.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=w ... wayman.htm

Supposedly, the Weinsteins have been happy with its performance, but it doesn't look like it's doing all that well to me!